₿Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Info Bank
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Bitcoin
Strategic Reserve Info Bank — live price, halving cycles, on-chain data and Bitcoin outlook

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Max supply
21,000,000BTC
Halving cycle
4Years
Current block reward
3.125BTC
All-time high
$126,272₩180,000,000±2025.10.06

Price History

From $0.08 to $100,000.

Weekly BTC/USD prices on a linear scale — four full cycles are clearly visible.

Y-axis · Linear scale (USD)
2010
2040

* Y-axis scale: Linear (Bitcoin price, linear scale, USD) — shows absolute price differences directly

* Weekly BTC/USD historical data · shaded/dashed range is a future axis with no historical data (not a forecast)

* Chart data source: Habrador/Bitcoin-price-visualization (GitHub) + CoinGecko daily updates

Event figures basis · source links

Halving Cycles

Every four years, the reward halves.

New issuance is cut in half every 210,000 blocks. The final BTC will be mined around 2140.

Rotation
Truncate
Gap
ActualProjected* The block reward halves roughly every 210,000 blocks (4 years)

Supply & Demand

Who sells, and who buys.

Under a hard cap of 21 million, only about 450 BTC are newly issued each day. Supply shrinks while demand becomes structural — the real engine behind price.

Supply→ Sell

Supply Sources — Who pushes BTC into the market.

Where new issuance meets selling from existing holders. Since the 4th halving, daily new supply has fallen to about 450 BTC, making holder flows more influential.

  • Miners

    New issuance
    ≈ 450 BTC / day(As of 2026.08)

    3.125 BTC per block since the 4th halving. Miners are a structural source of supply, selling a large portion of new issuance on the market to cover operating costs.

  • Long-Term Holders (LTH)

    Cycle profit-taking
    Hold 70%+ of total supply(As of 2026.08)

    Wallets that have held for 155+ days. Selling concentrates near bull market peaks, creating the largest supply pressure of the cycle.

  • Exchange hot wallets

    Liquidity pool
    ≈ 2.4 million BTC(As of 2026.08)

    Tradable balances held by Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and others. Balances have fallen to a five-year low since the ETF approval.

  • Government-seized holdings

    Irregular sales
    ≈ 200,000 BTC(As of 2026.08)

    BTC seized by the U.S. (Silk Road, the Bitfinex hack), Germany, China, and others. Auctions or market sales create short-term supply shocks.

  • Mt. Gox / bankruptcy distribution

    Legacy claim repayment
    ≈ 140,000 BTC(As of 2026.08)

    Distribution of BTC to creditors has been underway since 2024. Profit-taking sales from early holders flow in periodically.

  • Mining pool treasuries

    Fee settlement
    Variable

    The routine supply channel through which pools such as Foundry and AntPool settle fees and rewards, funneling coins to OTC desks and exchanges.

Demand← Buy

Demand Sources — Who absorbs BTC.

New structural demand created by ETFs, sovereigns, and corporate treasuries. Price forms as one side drains exchange balances while the other realizes gains.

  • Spot ETFs

    Absorbing institutional capital
    ≈ 1.3 million BTC AUM(As of 2026.08)

    The 11 U.S. spot ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. Since launching in 2024, net buying flows have frequently amounted to several times the newly mined supply on a given day.

  • Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) / corporate treasuries

    Long-term accumulation
    600,000+ BTC (MSTR)(As of 2026.08)

    Led by Strategy (renamed from MicroStrategy in February 2025), corporate treasury adoption is spreading to companies such as Metaplanet and Marathon. They raise capital via convertible notes to buy BTC.

  • National strategic reserves (SBR)

    Sovereign demand
    ≈ 500,000 BTC(As of 2026.08)

    National-level holdings including the U.S. strategic reserve, El Salvador, Bhutan, and the UAE. The Trump administration's 2025 SBR executive order has emerged as a new demand pillar.

  • Asset manager model portfolios

    Diversified investment allocation
    1–3% of AUM recommended

    BlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley are incorporating BTC into model portfolios. A structural, recurring source of demand via advisory channels.

  • Personal self-custody

    Exchange → cold wallet
    Balances continuing to rise

    Withdrawals to hardware wallets such as Ledger and Trezor. Separate from ETFs, the 'not your keys, not your coins' movement is reducing liquid supply.

  • Stablecoin ↔ BTC rotation

    Global payments and hedging
    $200 billion+ in USDT/USDC(As of 2026.08)

    Demand to buy BTC via USDT in emerging markets and OTC markets. In regions with restricted dollar access, Bitcoin functions as a store of value and remittance tool.

Lost Bitcoin

The coins that never came back.

From Satoshi's dormant wallets to discarded hard drives — an estimated 3.8 million BTC will never return to the market.

Total Supply Cap
21,000,000BTC
Mined So Far
19.9M94.7%
Est. Permanently Lost
3.8M≈ 18%
Est. Circulating
16.1M≈ 77%

Breakdown of the 21M Supply (based on 21M total cap)

estimate · Chainalysis / Glassnode
76.7%
18.1%
5.2%
Circulating76.7%
LOST18.1%
Unmined5.2%

The supply cap is 21 million, but about a fifth of it will effectively never return to the market — the 'Lost Bitcoin' phenomenon that substantively reinforces scarcity.

Breakdown of Permanently Lost Estimate (based on 3.8M lost)

total ≈ 3.8M BTC · shares below are relative to the lost amount (3.8M)
  • Satoshi's wallet
    1,100K BTC28.9%
  • Lost private keys
    1,500K BTC39.5%
  • Early mining dormant wallets
    900K BTC23.7%
  • Unrecovered exchange hacks
    200K BTC5.3%
  • Burned · dust · other
    100K BTC2.6%

The % on each card below is relative to the 21M BTC total supply cap

Satoshi's Wallet

≈ 5.2%
≈ 1,100,000 BTC

Holdings of the early miner (Satoshi) estimated via Patoshi pattern analysis. Untouched since 2009–2010.

Lost Private Keys

≈ 7.1%
≈ 1,500,000 BTC

Discarded hard drives, lost notes, forgotten seed phrases. The UK's James Howells and his landfilled 7,500 BTC are a famous case.

Early Mining — Dormant Wallets

≈ 4.3%
≈ 900,000 BTC

P2PK addresses mined between 2009–2011 that haven't moved in over a decade. Many are believed to have lost keys.

Unrecovered Exchange Hacks

≈ 1.0%
≈ 200,000 BTC

Unrecovered Mt. Gox funds, the 2016 Bitfinex hack, and other coins frozen or untraceable after hacks.

Burned · Dust · Other

≈ 0.5%
≈ 100,000 BTC

An estimate combining unverifiable burn addresses (e.g. 1BitcoinEater…, ~3,700 BTC confirmed), dust UTXOs worth less than fees, OP_RETURN outputs, and other economically unrecoverable remainders.

Historical Events

The moments that made Bitcoin.

Key Issues

What is being debated right now.

Macroeconomics

The 'digital gold' narrative

The 21 million supply cap and the four-year halving cycle have positioned Bitcoin as an inflation-hedge asset. As institutional and sovereign holdings grow, the debate over it being 'gold's digital substitute' is intensifying.

Regulation

Spot ETFs and institutional adoption

Since the U.S. approved spot ETFs in 2024, asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have come to hold hundreds of thousands of BTC. Korea, Hong Kong, and Europe are also progressing with their own institutional discussions.

US Policy

Trump 2.0 and the pro-crypto pivot

In 2025, the Trump administration made a 180-degree policy shift with actions such as banning a CBDC, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), rescinding SAB 121, and dropping SEC lawsuits. With the GENIUS Act codifying stablecoins into federal law for the first time, the strategy of extending dollar dominance into the digital realm has kicked into high gear.

Energy

Mining's environmental impact

Global Bitcoin mining consumes roughly 150 TWh of electricity annually. The share of renewable energy and flared gas usage is rapidly increasing, but ESG-related criticism persists.

Technology

The Lightning Network and scalability

The layer-2 solution the Lightning Network is expanding to compensate for the limited transactions-per-second capacity of the main chain. Experimentation is active in the payments and remittance space.

Geopolitics

The race for nation-level holdings

BTC held by nations — El Salvador, Bhutan, and U.S. government seizures, among others — is approaching one million coins. Discussions of strategic reserve assets are gaining momentum.

Risk

Volatility and market manipulation concerns

The concentration of whale wallets and derivatives liquidations amplify short-term volatility. Dependence on stablecoins and exchange trust issues also remain ongoing risk factors.