₿Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Info Bank
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Supply & Demand

Who Is Selling, and Who Is Buying

Under a cap of 21 million coins, only about 450 BTC is newly issued per day. What actually determines price is not this narrow stream of new supply, but which direction the existing held supply moves.

Table 1 — Supply Sources

Where new issuance meets sell-side flow from existing holders. Figures are estimates based on public on-chain data.

SourceRoleScaleDescription
MinersNew issuance≈ 450 BTC / day3.125 BTC per block since the 4th halving. Miners are a structural source of supply, selling a large portion of new issuance on the market to cover operating costs.
Long-Term Holders (LTH)Cycle profit-takingHold 70%+ of total supplyWallets that have held for 155+ days. Selling concentrates near bull market peaks, creating the largest supply pressure of the cycle.
Exchange hot walletsLiquidity pool≈ 2.4 million BTCTradable balances held by Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and others. Balances have fallen to a five-year low since the ETF approval.
Government-seized holdingsIrregular sales≈ 200,000 BTCBTC seized by the U.S. (Silk Road, the Bitfinex hack), Germany, China, and others. Auctions or market sales create short-term supply shocks.
Mt. Gox / bankruptcy distributionLegacy claim repayment≈ 140,000 BTCDistribution of BTC to creditors has been underway since 2024. Profit-taking sales from early holders flow in periodically.
Mining pool treasuriesFee settlementVariableThe routine supply channel through which pools such as Foundry and AntPool settle fees and rewards, funneling coins to OTC desks and exchanges.
Table 2 — Demand Sources

Structural demand from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign reserves. Price forms as one side drains exchange balances while the other realizes gains.

SourceRoleScaleDescription
Spot ETFsAbsorbing institutional capital≈ 1.3 million BTC AUMThe 11 U.S. spot ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. Since launching in 2024, net buying flows have frequently amounted to several times the newly mined supply on a given day.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) / corporate treasuriesLong-term accumulation600,000+ BTC (MSTR)Led by Strategy (renamed from MicroStrategy in February 2025), corporate treasury adoption is spreading to companies such as Metaplanet and Marathon. They raise capital via convertible notes to buy BTC.
National strategic reserves (SBR)Sovereign demand≈ 500,000 BTCNational-level holdings including the U.S. strategic reserve, El Salvador, Bhutan, and the UAE. The Trump administration's 2025 SBR executive order has emerged as a new demand pillar.
Asset manager model portfoliosDiversified investment allocation1–3% of AUM recommendedBlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley are incorporating BTC into model portfolios. A structural, recurring source of demand via advisory channels.
Personal self-custodyExchange → cold walletBalances continuing to riseWithdrawals to hardware wallets such as Ledger and Trezor. Separate from ETFs, the 'not your keys, not your coins' movement is reducing liquid supply.
Stablecoin ↔ BTC rotationGlobal payments and hedging$200 billion+ in USDT/USDCDemand to buy BTC via USDT in emerging markets and OTC markets. In regions with restricted dollar access, Bitcoin functions as a store of value and remittance tool.
Figure 1 — Daily Supply/Demand Comparison (Est.)

Post-halving daily issuance is about 450 BTC. On active days, ETF net buying can absorb several times new supply.

  • Mining issuance450 · BTC/day
  • Spot ETF net buy (active day)1,500 · BTC/day
  • Corporate treasury buys (avg)300 · BTC/day

The supply side: new issuance is just one part

Bitcoin entering the market comes from four broad channels. The first is miners' new issuance, currently around 450 BTC per day. Since miners must cover electricity and equipment depreciation costs, they are a structural source of supply that continuously sells off a large share of what they mine.

The second is profit-taking by long-term holders. Coins that haven't moved for 155 days or more are classified as long-term holder supply, and their selling tends to concentrate near bull-market peaks, creating the largest supply pressure of the cycle. This is a far larger volume than new issuance.

The third is exchange balances. Coins sitting in exchange wallets are considered immediately sellable liquidity. The fact that exchange balances have fallen to multi-year lows since the launch of spot ETFs is frequently cited as a key point in recent supply-demand discussions. The fourth is government-seized coins and distributions from bankruptcy proceedings — not large in scale, but their sale timing is unpredictable and can create short-term shocks.

The demand side: the rise of structured buyers

The character of demand changed after U.S. spot ETF approval in 2024. On top of the retail flow of buying and selling on exchanges, a layer of asset managers buying and redeeming daily through a set process was added. Because ETFs must secure spot bitcoin on any day with net inflows, it's not uncommon to see buying on a given day that is several times the newly mined supply.

Corporate treasury demand has also continued. A representative pattern is publicly listed companies that choose to hold bitcoin instead of cash on their balance sheets, funding purchases through convertible bonds or equity offerings. This demand depends on stock price and financing conditions, so it can shrink sharply if market conditions worsen.

Sovereign-level demand is more significant symbolically than in scale. Policies like the United States' strategic reserve initiatives and El Salvador's adoption of bitcoin as legal tender draw attention less for the actual purchase volume than for the ripple effects on other governments' policy decisions.

Caution when citing figures

The figures displayed on this page and in the supply-demand section are each labeled with an as-of date and source. ETF assets under management, exchange balances, and the share of long-term holders can vary considerably between tracking organizations due to differing definitions and methodologies.

For instance, 'exchange balance' depends on which addresses are labeled as belonging to an exchange, and 'long-term holder share' changes depending on the threshold used (155 days). It is therefore more reliable to look at how the same metric from the same organization changes over time than to rely on absolute values.

Sources & references