ANALYSIS / LONG-TERM CYCLES
Bitcoin Long-Term Analysis
Explore price relative to long-term averages. Historical reference lines are not future price targets or trading instructions.
BTC / USD · Confirmed daily average price
$81,472.50
Price date (UTC): 2026-10-18
Bitcoinity · Bitstamp BTC/USD · daily average
Last successful collection (KST): 20/10/2026, 06:36:15
Actual coverage: 2011-09-17 → 2026-10-18
Data provided by Bitcoinity · UTC daily average prices for Bitstamp BTC/USD, not daily closes. The indicators below are daily-average variants; values and crossing dates may differ from close-based originals. The unfinished current day is excluded.
200-Week Moving Average
1.226×
2026-10-18
2-Year MA Multiplier
—
2026-10-18
Pi Cycle Top
0.475×
2026-10-18
Mayer Multiple
1.125×
2026-10-18
01 / 200-Week Moving Average
200-Week Moving Average
Compare price with almost four years of confirmed Sunday daily averages.
1.226×
2026-10-18 UTC
Deviation: 22.6%
Formula · interpretation and limits
Daily-average variant · may differ from the close-based original
SMA200W = Σ(last 200 confirmed Sunday daily averages) / 200
The average is not a guaranteed floor. A line is shown, not an unverified replica of the original heatmap.
Indicators are calculated over the full preparation history before display filtering. Gaps and insufficient history remain null; the unfinished current day is excluded.
After the Monday 00:00 UTC boundary, the mean uses 200 confirmed Sunday daily average prices. These are not weekly closes; unfinished Sunday observations are excluded.
Indicator reference02 / 2-Year MA Multiplier
2-Year MA Multiplier
See how many times the two-year average Bitcoin is trading at.
—
2026-10-18 UTC
Insufficient consecutive confirmed observations for this indicator.
Formula · interpretation and limits
Daily-average variant · may differ from the close-based original
SMA730 = Σ(last 730 daily averages) / 730; upper = 5 × SMA730
The 5× line is a historical reference, not this cycle’s price target.
Indicators are calculated over the full preparation history before display filtering. Gaps and insufficient history remain null; the unfinished current day is excluded.
Indicator reference03 / Pi Cycle Top
Pi Cycle Top
Watch whether the 111-day average crosses twice the 350-day average.
0.475×
2026-10-18 UTC
No new upward crossing on latest confirmed day · Last crossing: 2021-04-12
Formula · interpretation and limits
Daily-average variant · may differ from the close-based original
ratio = SMA111 / (2 × SMA350); cross: prior < 1, current ≥ 1
An empirical indicator that matched some historical tops. No crossing does not mean safety or guaranteed gains.
Indicators are calculated over the full preparation history before display filtering. Gaps and insufficient history remain null; the unfinished current day is excluded.
Indicator reference04 / Mayer Multiple
Mayer Multiple
See how many times the 200-day average Bitcoin is trading at.
1.125×
2026-10-18 UTC
Formula · interpretation and limits
Daily-average variant · may differ from the close-based original
Mayer Multiple = P / SMA200
0.8 and 2.4 are historical references only. A multiple of 1.5 means price is 50% above the average.
Indicators are calculated over the full preparation history before display filtering. Gaps and insufficient history remain null; the unfinished current day is excluded.
Indicator referenceSources & references
- Data provided by Bitcoinity · Bitstamp BTC/USD ↗
Single-exchange USD daily averages (avg), dated in UTC. Calculations use full daily history without filling gaps. Highs, lows and closes are not substituted for averages.
- Bitcoinity official data-use permission ↗
Checked 2026-10-19 · answers ‘Can we use it?’ with ‘Sure. Please provide the data source.’ and directs users to CSV/XLSX exports. Source attribution is provided; no endorsement or partnership is implied.
- Actual halving blocks · 420,000 / 630,000 / 840,000 ↗